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Discussion Topic: The opera ain't over until the fat lady sings
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jpdell33 |
04-28-2018 @ 12:11 PM
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The historic summit on the Korean DMZ is more than likely a ploy to buy time for DPRK (aka North Korea). The have a long history of making promises then backsliding on them if not out and out cheating. Every once in a while DPRK pulls a stunt like sinking a ROK (South Korea) destroyer, shelling ROK territory, infiltrating saboteurs by submarine, blowing up a Korean Air plane in flight, etc. just to put everyone on notice that the DPRK still counts for something.
Picture this scenario: Two cities about the size of New York and Philadelphia (both actually much bigger) are the capitals of two countries at war with each other for almost 70 years now. Running through New Jersey is a 3 mile wide strip of no man's land that is heavily guarded with troops tanks, heavy fencing and minefields. On each side of the border are 1.5M man modern militaries armed to the teeth, backed by millions more reservists on short notice call up. On the south side of the border are thousands of artillery pieces that could fire 100,000 rounds per hour of high explosives and chemicals on New York, and maintain that for days. The New York side has a very modern Air Force that will try to destroy that artillery once it starts firing. But that will take time, enough time so that millions of New Yorkers could be dead by the time the shooting stops. Once upon a time the only thing that held artillery in abeyance was the threat that the war would go nuclear and would destroy the DPRK. DPRK now has nuclear weapons that could be used to retaliate against ROK, Japan, and US territory.
Every US president since JFK has done everything it could to avoid war with DPRK to the point of granting them concessions and free passes for doing things like capturing the USS Pueblo. Meanwhile the US has spent billions maintaining and equipping a large force of its own there over the last 65 years.
Now along comes Trump. The first president since IKE to willingly confront DPRK and try to actually do something about this. Trump has established himself as a different kind of president willing to put an end to this scenario. DPRK's mercurial Kim Jong Un has a history of being unpredictable. ROK president Moon is just a dreamy eyed liberal. China, Russia, and Japan all have stable and realistic leadership.
Moon got nothing from this summit, just some PR. Kim bought time to reconstruct his nuclear testing site (that was destroyed when the mountain test site collapsed and taking who only knows what with it),and continue rocket development.
Trump, who knows the art of the deal, will now give Kim a chance to cut a deal. Kim will most likely make a bunch of promises he will have not intention of keeping. If Trump is not convinced Kim will keep his end of the deal, or if Kim renegs as I think he will, Trump will have no choice but to put up or shut up. Expect Trump, the man who employed the most vicious lawyer in New York in Roy Cohn, to no doubt put up. Letting the chips fall where they may. DPRK will be destroyed, but a what cost?
May we live interesting times.
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bmurphy |
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04-28-2018 @ 12:33 PM
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Hi
It certainly is going to create a lot of drama
up ahead.
You really have to wonder what the real story is
behind the scenes to cause this sudden cooling
of tensions.
Seems to have kicked in to a higher speed when
the sister of the North Korean leader showed up
at the Olympics in South Korea.
NK must be in a bit more turmoil than most think.
Time to get Dennis Rodman's thoughts.
Thanks
Bill
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jpdell33 |
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04-29-2018 @ 3:01 PM
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I think this whole Olympics initiated peace movement is a ploy to drive a wedge between us and the ROK (South Korea) to try and have their cake and eat it (nuclear arsenal and legitimize it). The miscalculation there is that Japan won't stand for it and may threaten to go nuke themselves, that in turn would liberate Taiwan to do the same - both scenarios unacceptable to China. If anything is going on behind the scenes, it's because China is leaning harder on the DPRK than we know/suspect. So much for my opinion. Anyone else got one?
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jpdell33 |
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05-24-2018 @ 10:15 AM
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By canceling their summit today, Trump has stolen a march on Kim Jong Un. It is becoming apparent that DPRK /Kim never had an intention to hold the Singapore Summit, as it has become clear that they have not made any of the necessary preparations. By canceling first and laying the blame on them, Trump (ever the New Yorker) has seized the initiative forcing Kim to now react to him. Kim has few options other than to plead for a restart with a weaker hand or suffer more consequences of tighter sanctions or a military strike by the US.
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jpdell33 |
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05-28-2018 @ 11:11 AM
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Kim pleads for the restart!
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jpdell33 |
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06-10-2018 @ 12:28 PM
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Trump say he knows if Kim will be serious in the first few minutes of meeting him. That seems to indicate that Trump, ever the New Yorker, will do / say something bold to make Kim react to him. Trump will then gauge his reaction to see if Kim is serious or not. I would love to be the proverbial fly on the wall when this goes down. Hopefully Kim won't do something stupid like some last minute gamesmanship of his own to give Trump the chance to say he's not serious before the summit starts. They tried that once and it backfired on them.
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jpdell33 |
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06-14-2018 @ 11:26 AM
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Very disturbing news. It is clear from what transpired that Trump and Kim did little negotiating and that the nuts and bolts of the still mysterious accord was put together by the respective National Security Teams. What is clear is the Kim brought something new to the negotiations that surprised Trump. In the meanwhile Trump is thumping his chest and Kim appears to have read well Trump's "Art of the Deal". The North Koreans are not to be trusted, yet so far Trump has signaled that he is. We're still only in Act II of this opera. Let's hope it's not a tragedy or a travesty.
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jpdell33 |
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07-07-2018 @ 8:23 AM
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Recent reports suggest Kim isn't serious about de-nuking (like I thought). Hopefully Pompeo is reading him the riot act this weekend.
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jpdell33 |
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07-08-2018 @ 12:28 PM
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Obviously Pompeo did raise the alternative of not negotiating - hence the "gangster" comments. Obviously Pompeo was making an offer they couldn't refuse. Still Kim and company are dragging their feet. Time for Trump to walk away from the negotiating table for a while and do something to change the DPRK gamesmanship mode.
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jpdell33 |
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07-16-2018 @ 5:08 PM
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Stall, stall, stall. DPRK makes no progress while
quibbling over minor items (US war dead remains).
Meanwhile missile development and nuke development
continues unabated. Time for Trump to make a serious
move. Hopefully he's giving Putin a hint of a heads up
so Putin can level with Kim. This is fascinating.
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