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Joined: Jun 2016
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Contrary to the theory of Giulio Douhet (often seen as the Mahan or Clausewitz of air power) strategic bombing does not break the resolve of the civilian populace but only serves to stiffen it. German and Japanese cities torched by British and American air power did not weaken the resolve of the civilian populations and Axis governments but only seemed to strengthen their resolve. The atomic bombings of Hiroshima did not in themselves cause Japan to surrender but it was just one factor of several that caused Hirohito to recognize the futility of further resistance. The fact the that the US Navy strangled their supply lines, the Russians entering the war and American forces on the cusp of invading Japan itself were just as important or more so in the total equation. Similarly, if Putin thinks he can turn the tide with nuclear weapons he is only fooling himself, it will not break the will of Ukraine. It would surely cause more isolation of his regime and likely increased NATO involvement to including the destruction of his fleet, the invasion of Crimea and the Kaliningrad enclave. If he were to use nuclear weapons against NATO, it would be game over. The US nuclear guarantee to its allies would demand a retaliation of sorts that could include British participation (I wouldn't count on the French). His nuclear devastation torpedo would not only cause a nuclear tsunami against an American city, but its effects would be felt globally. The shockwave cannot be focused, it would a 360-degree effect spread over the entire Atlantic and could cause destruction in portions of the Indian and Pacific littorals. Likewise, if he tested his weapon in the Arctic Ocean it would cause devastation all over northern Russia, Canada, Greenland, Norway and Alaska. It would also likely shatter the arctic polar ice cap to cause God knows what effect. He has constructed a weapon he cannot use. Putin's ego will not let him recognize the fact that he has lost his war in Ukraine but could cause him more troubles if the remaining old Soviet republics were to see his weakened position and turn on him. As for Belarus, that is the only rump of the old Russia he could hold on to but at great cost.
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