| jpdell33 | -- 03-13-2017 @ 3:57 PM |
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Please excuse me here. On most every Le Menu posting, I see conclusions braced by a bevy of charts. Since most of the imminent dire predictions (one way or the other) have yet to come to pass, I have personally come to the conclusion that the posted charts, with all of their correlating trend lines duly mapped, are unintentionally corrupted by wishful thinking. I personally don't think this sort of analysis has elevated itself to an Asimov-like predictor of the future. In his Foundation trilogy, Isaac Asimov postulated that large scale social events could not only be extrapolated and mathematically modeled to forecast the broad outlines of future history, but also used to carefully manipulate its outcome. In his case, his "psycho-historians" predicted a collapse of galactic civilization that was supposed to last 30,000 years. and plotted to contain the collapse to 1000 years. I am aware that supposed trends have been mapped to show how various market ups, downs, bubbles and crashes could have been predicted (but were not at the time). We have Elliot Waves and Hindenburg Omens that have long given false signals. We have 15 year business cycles overlapping 60 year social trends like that described by Ravi Bhatra. Most of this analysis is to my thinking, border-line useless. In our case here - supposed future trends are seemingly deliberately disrupted by the Gold Cartel's chartists and traders. Le Metropole Cafe contributors are left wringing their hands over the what ifs. Well most historians decry the what-if scenarios postulated by political scientist's "counter-factual" argumentation, as meaningless intellectual gamesmanship. The GATA team has done some wonderful work documenting Gold Cartel market manipulation. I personally believe that our contributors could best use their considerable knowledge and intellectual acumen to devise novel ways to blunt the effect of Gold Cartel schemes. I am not by profession a commodities trader or any sort of financial professional. I am a civil engineer, used to dealing with facts, mathematics and scientific principals. I therefore invite discussion and even lecturing on the foregoing. I am always willing to learn.
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| bmurphy | -- 03-13-2017 @ 5:35 PM |
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Hi A very well written post. Thanks I know where you are coming from re the analysis. But they are not always bullish ones. Recently, I made mention of the gold/silver chart breakdowns. Bigger picture: Nothing seems to matter, or can be done, about The Gold Cartel ... that is until they blow up, which they will. Another point is (IMO) the present nightmare will go on and then come event out of the blue will change everything. There is no way to know when it will appear, but those trying to be too cute, and are out, probably will miss the biggest move in history. Thanks much Bill
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| jpdell33 | -- 03-14-2017 @ 10:22 AM |
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People who use this website (myself included) are simply preaching to the choir. GATA has done well to document the market manipulations in gold and silver. For this to stop, one or more things need to happen: A change in Fed Leadership/group think. I believe Ben Bernanke had a more hands off approach- letting Adam Smith's invisible hand do its stuff. That is why gold and silver jumped on his watch. I believe Janet Yellen and company have resumed the Volcker, Greenspan policy of gold being the enemy. I am afraid we are going to be stuck with them for the time being. The Gold Cartel somehow accidentally paints themselves into a corner. An unlikely scenario as many smart people are afraid of doing this. The rogue trader who gets hold of the gold supply and thinks it is just his monopoly money and somehow loses it all and nothing is left to manipulate the market with. There is history with the Barings Bank here. There is no way to tell for certain if this could happen (or perhaps already has). The Chinese and Indians wrest control of the gold market. They start demanding actual physical deliveries on gold and silver futures contracts. No more trading in paper / electronic gold and silver. The feared global economic collapse under the staggering debt load actually happens. Chaos ensues and a mad scramble for physical gold finally comes to pass. Many of our contributors see this as a likely outcome. Political impasse in our congress finally creates an American default. While this has almost technically happened, the Fed always jumps in and prints even more money. Bitcoin really does replace gold. I think this is just wishful thinking by the bitcoin crowd. Personally I believe most countries will soon crack down on this tax evasion scheme. A true Black Swan event - some other global catastrophe that upends social and/or economic order, as Bill Murphy just postulated. Personally I think the most likely scenario will be China-India. Particularly if India liberalizes it gold purchase policies. This message was edited by jpdell33 on 3-14-17 @ 1:51 PM
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