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Contrary to the theory of Giulio Douhet (often seen as
the Mahan or Clausewitz of air power) strategic bombing
does not break the resolve of the civilian populace but
only serves to stiffen it. German and Japanese cities
torched by British and American air power did not
weaken the resolve of the civilian populations and Axis
governments but only seemed to strengthen their
resolve.
The atomic bombings of Hiroshima did not in themselves
cause Japan to surrender but it was just one factor of
several that caused Hirohito to recognize the futility
of further resistance. The fact the that the US Navy
strangled their supply lines, the Russians entering the
war and American forces on the cusp of invading Japan
itself were just as important or more so in the total
equation.
Similarly, if Putin thinks he can turn the tide with
nuclear weapons he is only fooling himself, it will not
break the will of Ukraine. It would surely cause more
isolation of his regime and likely increased NATO
involvement to including the destruction of his fleet,
the invasion of Crimea and the Kaliningrad enclave. If
he were to use nuclear weapons against NATO, it would
be game over. The US nuclear guarantee to its allies
would demand a retaliation of sorts that could include
British participation (I wouldn't count on the French).
His nuclear devastation torpedo would not only cause a
nuclear tsunami against an American city, but its
effects would be felt globally. The shockwave cannot
be focused, it would a 360-degree effect spread over
the entire Atlantic and could cause destruction in
portions of the Indian and Pacific littorals. Likewise,
if he tested his weapon in the Arctic Ocean it would
cause devastation all over northern Russia, Canada,
Greenland, Norway and Alaska. It would also likely
shatter the arctic polar ice cap to cause God knows
what effect. He has constructed a weapon he cannot use.
Putin's ego will not let him recognize the fact that he
has lost his war in Ukraine but could cause him more
troubles if the remaining old Soviet republics were to
see his weakened position and turn on him.
As for Belarus, that is the only rump of the old Russia
he could hold on to but at great cost.
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jpdell33
10-11-2022 @ 1:01 PM